The neglected tool in the Bayesian ecologist's shed: A case study testing informative priors' effect on model accuracy

WK Morris; PA Vesk; MA Mccarthy; S Bunyavejchewin; PJ Baker

Journal article

The neglected tool in the Bayesian ecologist's shed: A case study testing informative priors' effect on model accuracy

WK Morris, PA Vesk, MA Mccarthy, S Bunyavejchewin, PJ Baker

Ecology and Evolution | Published : 2015

DOI: 10.1002/ece3.1346

Abstract

Despite benefits for precision, ecologists rarely use informative priors. One reason that ecologists may prefer vague priors is the perception that informative priors reduce accuracy. To date, no ecological study has empirically evaluated data-derived informative priors' effects on precision and accuracy. To determine the impacts of priors, we evaluated mortality models for tree species using data from a forest dynamics plot in Thailand. Half the models used vague priors, and the remaining half had informative priors. We found precision was greater when using informative priors, but effects on accuracy were more variable. In some cases, prior information improved accuracy, while in others, i..

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University of Melbourne Researchers

Peter Vesk Author

Michael McCarthy Author

Patrick Baker Author

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Grants

Awarded by National Science Foundation

Funding Acknowledgements

William K. Morris was funded by an Australian Postgraduate Award. This research was supported by an Australian Research Council Discovery Project (DP0985600), Australian Research Council Future Fellowships (FT100100923 to MAM and FT1201011715 to PJB) and the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence in Environmental Decisions. The Huai Kha Khaeng 50-ha forest plot is part of the Smithsonian Institution Global Earth Observatory-Center for Tropical Forest Science (CTFS) network and has received financial support from the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, the Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University, the National Science Foundation (DEB9629601 and DEB1046113), the Frank Levinson Family Foundation and the HSBC Climate Partnership.